Thursday, March 29, 2012

March 2012 Newsletter


Economics – The Long View

Don’t raise taxes, help create capital gains!  Interesting argument: The U.S. deficit is not because we are under-taxed, it’s because there has been a shortage of capital gains.  So, government should focus on policies that help create capital gains.

There’s always stuff to worry about – Bailing out Greece, China’s soft landing or the massive U.S. Deficit.  However, the U.S. consumer drives the world economy, and is as important to the world economy as all of Asia and Latin America.  Source: Paul Kedrosky. 

Consumer spending is affected by housing which is affected by the banking industry.  As soon as the banks can get back to the business of expanding credit (lending), the faster the economy will recover.  Here’s a concise explanation what’s happening with bank litigation and mortgage settlement.   

Stocks/Companies

Amazon:  Are the wheels coming off?  Here’s a detailed analysis with strong evidence questioning Amazon’s ability to grow profitably.   

Dr Pepper vs. Monster:  One sure way to guarantee mediocre (at best) investment performance is to overpay.  Not sure Dr. Pepper stock is undervalued, but shares of Monster look priced for perfection.  See the comparison here

Value investor believes there’s a little upside left in the shares of Sara Lee.  

Supervalu – cheap stock price, but shrinking sales and falling inventory turns suggest caution.  See the detailed financial analysis of its estimated worth here.

Finance/Investment Tips for High Income Earners

Buy Stuff vs. Do Stuff.  Think about how much your home is really costing you.  Industry estimates that a home’s annual maintenance cost is 1 -3% of its original cost.  Add another 1% for property taxes.  So, an $800,000 home may cost $32,000 in taxes and maintenance per year.  Downsizing to a smaller home, say $400,000, would put $16,000 in your pocket every year, enough to buy a nice month-long vacation in Aspen, the Hamptons, or the Coast of Spain. 

Why You Should Avoid Private Placements - Spot-on commentary from a former stockbroker. It’s worth a read for great lines like “the company will vanish like the cast of Mr. Belvedere”.  Apologies though for the foul language in the article (you can take the boy out of the brokerage, but not the broker out of the boy).   


Random Stuff You Might Like

“People will say he is socially awkward and incapable of leading.  They are wrong.  This kid is a winner.  Let’s do whatever we can to get him.  It will be the defining moment of the franchise.”
That’s a Bull’s-eye for Ernie Acorsi, on Super Bowl MVP Eli Manning – here’s the full 2003 College Scouting Report on Manning

Outliers – 10,000 hours of training.  Malcolm Gladwell doesn’t let scientific evidence stand in the way of book sales.    

Dilbert on Stockbrokers.